Currently, reproduction numbers of pandemic models (SIR, SEIR, Lotka-Euler and others), basic or not, and their constituent parameters like transmission rate or duration of infectiousness, mainly are estimated as one average value for either a moving period in time [0,t], or for the whole duration [0,T] of the pandemic. This book statistically investigates these parameters, and thereby the reproduction number as timedependent: hence the name 'Timelocal Reproduction Number'.

For instance, th...

A daily glass of wine prolongs life-yet alcohol can cause life-threatening cancer. Some say raising the minimum wage will decrease inequality while others say it increases unemployment. Scientists once confidently claimed that hormone replacement therapy reduced the risk of heart disease but now they equally confidently claim it raises that risk.

What should we make of this endless barrage of conflicting claims? Observation and Experiment is an introduction to causal inference by one of the f...

A timely new edition, fully updated and revised, Standard Deviations demystifies the science behind the statistics

Award-winning Steven Strogatz, one of the foremost popularisers of maths, has written a witty and fascinating account of maths' most compelling ideas and how, so often, they are an integral part of everyday life.

From ancient times, mathematics has developed side-by-side with physics; only in the last two hundred years they came apart as different branches of science. Extensive use of mathematics in other sciences, such as biology, chemistry, economics, pharmacology, environmental and social sciences is even more recent. Nowadays, knowledge of mathematical techniques is indispensable also for students and researchers in these fields.

The series of textbooks “Mathematics that Works” presents mathem...

No, not another set of sudoku puzzles, not even exotic ones. This time a book about patterns in the finished sudoku and its many aspects: symmetry, trios, diagonals, shiftings, locations, tournaments, magic, even–odd and a lot more fanciful things. You can marvel at the many beautiful sudokus and be challenged to do better. Become a sudoku pattern player!

Logic is often perceived as having little to do with the rest of philosophy, and even less to do with real life. In this lively and accessible introduction, Graham Priest shows how wrong this conception is. He explores the philosophical roots of the subject, explaining how modern formal logic deals with issues ranging from the existence of God and the reality of time to paradoxes of probability and decision theory.

Along the way, the basics of formal logic are explained in simple, non-technic...

This book grew out of a course of lectures given to third year undergraduates at Oxford University and it has the modest aim of producing a rapid introduction to the subject. It is designed to be read

Doing Bayesian Data Analysis: A Tutorial with R, JAGS, and Stan, Second Edition provides an accessible approach for conducting Bayesian data analysis, as material is explained clearly with concrete examples. Included are step-by-step instructions on how to carry out Bayesian data analyses in the popular and free software R and WinBugs, as well as new programs in JAGS and Stan. The new programs are designed to be much easier to use than the scripts in the first edition.

In particular, there ar...