The Sunday Times bestseller'A monumental, gripping book ... Outstanding' Sunday TimesWherever there is human judgement, there is noise.

Solving complex problems and selling their solutions is critical for personal and organizational success. For most of us, however, it doesn't come naturally and we haven't been taught how to do it well. Research shows a host of pitfalls trips us up when we try: We're quick to believe we understand a situation and jump to a flawed solution.

We seek to confirm our hypotheses and ignore conflicting evidence. We view challenges incompletely through the frameworks we know instead of with a fresh p...