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TimeLocal Reproduction Number Counting Processes, Martingales, Log-Likelihood MLE’s and Variances

2024 || Paperback || Jan Donker || Brave New Books

Currently, reproduction numbers of pandemic models (SIR, SEIR, Lotka-Euler and others), basic or not, and their constituent parameters like transmission rate or duration of infectiousness, mainly are estimated as one average value for either a moving period in time [0,t], or for the whole duration [0,T] of the pandemic. This book statistically investigates these parameters, and thereby the reproduction number as timedependent: hence the name 'Timelocal Reproduction Number'.

For instance, th...